Dynamics of the Delta variant in France

The Pasteur Institute hypothesizes in this study that there is no change in the transmissibility of the Delta variant related to climate during the study period (June 15 to October 1)


Results:

If the growth momentum of the Delta variant continues at the same pace in the coming weeks, the study results suggest that the pressure on the hospital could be significant as early as August, at a time when hospitals may be struggling to accommodate a large influx of patients.

Even a relatively small reduction in the infection rate this summer (on the order of 10-25%) would significantly reduce the magnitude of the peak in hospital admissions and delay the onset of the peak to a time when the hospital would be in a better position to absorb an influx of patients.

Description of the Study:

  • Title: Dynamique du variant Delta en France métropolitaine.
  • Principal Investigators: Researchers of the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases unit of the Pasteur Institute.
  • Centre of implementation: Pasteur Institute.
  • Study Population: Screening data documenting the L452R mutation in France.
  • Methods: Two different approaches are used to anticipate the dynamics of cases and hospitalizations in the coming weeks. A simple exponential growth model, and a more sophisticated mathematical model that takes into account natural and vaccine immunity, future increase in vaccine coverage, as well as transmission dynamics and risks by age group.

Objectives of the Study:

Principal Objectives: To study the propagation dynamics of the Delta variant by analyzing detection data documenting the L452R mutation.

More about this Study:

Scientific context: In the regions of metropolitan France (excluding Corsica), the Delta variant is growing rapidly, with an estimated regional effective number of Rd between 1.5 and 2.8 from June 15 to July 5. This means that in the regions it currently takes between 3.5 and 10.4 days to double the number of Delta cases. Estimates of RoI by region may still be uncertain due to relatively low incidences and the limited time frame.

Impression


Other Epidemiological Studies:

The Social Perception Of COVID-19 Vaccines

This study conducted by the UOC aims to find out the opinion of the Spanish population and professional healthcare personnel on the COVID-19 vaccines.

NAUTILUS Project

The NAUTILUS project aims to develop an artificial intelligence platform to identify, predict and intervene on persistent symptoms in people who have suffered from COVID-19.

Captura3

CoronaSurveys

The CoronaSurveys project is a collaborative endeavour between several universities, research institutions and independent volunteers that aims to collect and publish data related to the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries.

Diagnostics in pediatric chest involvement of COVID-19

Chest Computed Tomography (CT) + Artificial Intelligence (AI): a potential complementary approach to RT-PCR for COVID-19 detection and lesion characterization.

Dog

Detection Dogs as a Help in the COVID-19 Detection

What would happen if dogs could detect people who are positive for COVID-19? This is the question that Professor Dominique Grandjean, professor and researcher at EnvA at the initiative of the Nosaïs-Covid19 project, tries to answer in this study.

Portable pulmonary ultrasound for the diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia

An ultrasound severity index has been created to demonstrate the effectiveness of portable lung ultrasound both for diagnosis and for daily monitoring of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Study On The Spanish Population’s Opinion On The COVID-19 Vaccine

This cross-sectional study aims to determine the attitude of the Spanish population towards vaccination against COVID-19.

Ouuu

An algorithm to estimate on-stream the number of COVID-19 cases

A study that presents a method to mitigate the epidemic effects by estimating the number of COVID-19 cases without having to wait for laboratory confirmations.

Waters 3265829 640

COMETE Project

The aim of this project, directed by the French Navy firefighters battalion in Marseille, is to analyze wastewater and validate decontamination protocols on sites exposed to the virus in Marseille.

Agil

Impact of the Lockdown due to COVID-19 on Frail Older Adults

This study, the first one of the +AGIL-COVID19 program, assesses the effect of the lockdown due to the COVID-19 on physical activity levels and emotional wellbeing on frail older adults.